It is important to consider that problem solving under uncertainty will entail solving the problem under conditions of risk. This consideration is based on the fact that the uncertainty is in itself a risk. This is because it is difficult to be certain about what features will prevail during the time when the problem solving takes place. Assuming that the problem will be solved under the conditions of risk makes it possible to make considerations for adverse outcomes. It includes ensuring that preparations for potential threats are made, as a means of ensuring that negative outcomes will not be accrued.
Many theorists argue that uncertainty is the same as risk. They believe that the main differences between the two is that when planning or making decisions under conditions of uncertainty, one gets to make preparations for any eventual outcomes, should they be outcomes that were expected or unexpected. It is arguable that it is easier to manage risk as compared to managing uncertainty. This is why when solving problems under uncertainty, it is important to make assumptions that the problem is being solved under conditions of risk, so as to make better plans of ensuring that all the various variables are appropriately accounted for in the decision.
Another reason why it is important to make assumptions that problems are solved under conditions of risks when they are solved under uncertainty is because making decisions under conditions of risks facilitates effective identification of threats. This makes it easier to quantify and avert the threat. Uncertainty is associated with limited knowledge and this is what makes it difficult to determine what the future outcome might be. However, accounting for risks in the decision-making process helps improve the minimisation of the chances of the decision resulting in undesired outcomes.
- Annert, C., & Elvers, J. B. (2007). The ethics of uncertainty. In the light of possible dangers, research becomes a moral duty. EMBO Rep. 8 (10) , 892–6. doi:10.1038/sj.embor.7401072.
- Hubbard, D. (2010). How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in Business. New York: John Wiley & Sons.
